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Friday, March 11, 2011

Have you heard about anti-fragility?

Jim Benson, author of a Personal Kanban made the following quote the other day which I found very interesting and posted it to my LinkedIn profile.

A system that is not malleable, is brittle. A process which cannot adapt to context, is waste. One size does not fit all.

Terry Barnhart, a former podcast guest of mine, Applying the OODA Loop to Lean expanded that thought….

Have you heard about anti-fragility? Taleb's account is brilliant, it is like the package that says "Anti-fragile: Please handle poorly, it will improve the contents". This means a flexible system, but one that builds additional flexibility as brittleness is found. It means an adaptable system that gets more adaptable in adapting to emergent issues. It means a size that adjusts by itself.

As a result I found this video with Nassim Taleb,the author of The Black Swan describe Antifragility for the Economist.

Anti-Fragility

From Amazon on The Black Swan book page:

Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat, when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation. Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia.

Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan.

There is also brilliant conversation between Daniel Kahnemann and Nassim Taleb discussing biases, the illusion of patterns, the perception of risk and denial at the Digital, Life, Design Conference in Munich. It is on the bentatlas.com website: Risk and Denial, Daniel Kahnemann and Nassim Taleb in Munich.

This is very interesting on how this all applies to the future of business.

A system that is not malleable, is brittle. A process which cannot adapt to context, is waste. One size does not fit all. - A Quote from Jim Benson, author of a Personal Kanban made the following quote the other day which I found very interesting and posted it to my LinkedIn profile.

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